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Is the war between Russia and Ukraine an isolated conflict or could Putin be dragging the world towards World War III? There are growing concerns that the offensive by Russian President Vladimir Putin, the largest conventional military invasion the world has seen since World War II may be the precursor to a conflict that draws the entire world into it.
As of now, the war remains confined to Ukraine and hasn’t yet spilled over into the NATO member countries nearby. While the US and its allies have been vocal in their condemnation of Putin’s war, they have also remained steadfast in their refusal to put troops on the ground to counter Russia that expands the conflict. However, experts are still apprehensive that war can’t quite always be predicted and Russia being a nuclear power further complicates matters.
An Inadvertent Escalation
The war is now confined only to the eastern, southern, and northern regions of Ukraine with Kherson having recently fallen to the Russians. A large convoy of Russian military vehicles has seemingly been stalled 19 miles outside the Ukrainian capital Kyiv. However, with the war dragging on, the risk of an inadvertent escalation or something going horribly wrong along the sidelines of war may cause the war to spread.
The Cold War saw the US and Soviet Union on the brink of nuclear war several times. What triggered these apocalyptic situations were all human errors and individual mistakes. Experts fear that an inadvertent launch of a missile may land in a NATO country bordering Ukraine, like Poland. That would invoke Article Five which mandates a unified response by all NATO allies against any outside aggression. While the response from NATO may not be immediate, there’s always the concept of the ‘fog of war’ which implies that one can never be too sure how war plays out.
Isolated Russia
Apart from staunch support from Belarus, Putin doesn’t have much to show for international support. Of the major powers, only China and India have chosen to abstain from UN resolutions against Russia. However, abstentions are not a show of unrestricted support either. Even China, Russia’s most steadfast ally in recent times has expressed concern over the war lately.
America’s allies and some Western powers like the Dutch, the Swedes, the Finns, and the Germans have helped Ukraine with sophisticated weaponry. However, they have remained firm in not getting involved directly. That said, if the violence in Ukraine gets more and more brutal with the world having to witness atrocities unleashed by the Russians as in Bucha, the West may be forced to take a more aggressive posture. There are apprehensions that if Putin manages to take Ukraine, NATO and Russia will end up sharing a long border that could raise tensions alarmingly.
Conclusion
While the world seeks an early end to the conflict, apprehensions about the world being sucked into World War III persist. An increasingly desperate Putin might up the ante forcing the US and NATO to act more forcefully. Again, there’s always the risk of something untoward occurring inadvertently. Rising international isolation and the crippling sanctions may also incite Putin into being even more devastating in his attacks on Ukraine. The situation is fraught with risks and back-channel diplomacy should therefore be hastened.
